Given the same backdrop of high inflation, why did platforms like CME FedWatch and Polymarket (as well as Kalshi) accurately predict that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in October, but instead predicted a rate hike in December? Let's review the background and context of the October non-farm payroll data: 1. After the September rate hike, New York Fed President Williams publicly stated there was "no urgency," and Fed Chairman Warsh also refrained from providing forward guidance, only saying they would observe the data. The market interpreted this as a pause in October to observe the situation. 2. The September non-farm payrolls, released in early October, showed only 29,000 new jobs, far below expectations. The market subsequently lowered the probability of an October rate hike to below 20%, giving the Fed a reason to observe first. 3. The market priced in the Fed's pace: one rate hike, one pause to observe the data, and then further action at the end of the year. Therefore, the expectation of no rate hike in October and a rate hike in December were priced in simultaneously. The probability of a December rate hike remains high after the October meeting. 4. Tonight's October non-farm payrolls showed an increase of 165,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and hourly wages rose 3.1% year-on-year, also higher than expected. The September non-farm payrolls figure of 29,000... The estimate has been revised upwards from 10,000 to 60,000. Currently, the probability of a December rate hike remains high on the CME.