The prerequisite for trading is not accurate "prediction," but a well-thought-out "plan." Take the STH-RP signal, for example; it's often seen as a dividing line between bull and bear markets in terms of "sentiment." If the price finds support at this level, it indicates that investors are choosing to follow rather than flee as they approach a cost test—a sign of confidence. If the price breaks through directly, it indicates that fear has led investors to flee regardless of cost—a sign of panic. Historically, BTC in a bear-to-bull transition period sometimes finds support at STH-RP, and sometimes it breaks through. So how should we respond? Don't try to predict "What will happen this time?", but rather think about what to do if each situation occurs. Here are two examples for reference: Example 1: Buy above STH-RP, and stop loss if the daily closing price falls below a certain percentage (e.g., 5%). Wait for the price to rise above STH-RP again before buying, and sell if it falls below again. The downside of this strategy is that if BTC fluctuates around STH-RP, your capital will be repeatedly eroded. However, the advantage is that you will absolutely not miss the most frenzied upward wave of the bull market. Example 2: Start buying in batches when the price falls below STH-RP, buying more as it falls to lower your average cost. Stop buying once it rises above STH-RP. In the long run, the probability of losing money is very low. During the transition between a bear and bull market, anything below STH-RP presents an opportunity. Alternatively, if you currently have a spot position, and the price falls below STH-RP, you can hedge the risk with an equivalent position in contracts; close the position once it rises above STH-RP. In short, there are many methods; you need to find the one that suits you best. Don't try to predict the market. Making unfounded predictions is like opening a blind box. It's better to just flip a coin.