Killa|Nov 06, 2026 12:10
Congrats to those who managed to catch this move down.
Credit where credit is due. Unfortunately, after many years of experience, my mind is hardwired not to short during a bull trend.
You might think that’s stupid. I’m giving unrealized PnL back to the market on these drops, and hedging might seem like the smarter move. But the reason I don’t often hedge during bull trends is simple... experience.
There have been times in the past when I was convinced the market had to correct from a certain area. The technicals and fundamentals were aligning, yet the market had other plans. In the end, the most profitable position would have been to simply hold 1 position.
It’s natural for a trader to develop a bit of a god complex and feel like they need to catch every single move. I might have conviction in my plans and thesis, but I’m not trying to catch everything, just the moves I believe are most worth catching.
I managed to catch this entire 50% move to the upside from 62–65K. As I’ve mentioned, I’ve currently round tripped the continuation long from 76.2K, which I entered before we pushed to 87K. I’m not going to make excuses, but it was poor from me not to hedge that continuation long. It would have been much smarter to hedge that particular position. But again, I’ve learned painful lessons in the past, and I don’t intend to make those same mistakes in the future.
When you get blown out of hedges, you’re simply giving profits back to the market. You might get stopped 2-3 times before one of them actually works. In the end, you’re trading the range and continually hedging. All it takes is one candle to erase those gains and make you miss even more of the move up.
My plans during a bull trend are very simple, add exposure on dips, and don’t hedge unless it’s absolutely necessary. The area I thought looked best was 95K. We didn’t get there, and it’s still the area I’m paying attention to.
The trend is always your friend. During the entire bear market drop, I executed multiple shorts and entered basically no longs until 62K. I anticipate playing the bull market the same way I played the bear market.
Hold my longs, add exposure, and only start decreasing exposure when I believe the market is significantly overheated in price discovery.
Until then, BTC is at 76K, down from the 87K high.
We’re in a bull market and have retraced about 35-40% of the move up. So sure, I might have round tripped my continuation long, and I might not have caught the entire drop. But one thing is certain, I didn’t short the entire move up either. I was long the entire move up.
You don’t have to catch every move to make money.
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