Parr BTCETF Daily View – November 6th 1. Data Summary On November 3rd, a total of 430 million USDT flowed out: BTC -200 million USDT, FBTC -200 million USDT, IBIT -105 million USDT, GBTC -49.9 million USDT, EZBC -32.9 million USDT, HODL -23.6 million USDT, ARKB -18.9 million USDT. 1) A typical "bull trap": FBTC and ARKB experienced "T+1 extreme sell-offs". On November 4th, the day the midterm elections concluded, FBTC saw a buying spree of +237 million USDT, and ARKB saw buying of +19.9032 million USDT. However, just 24 hours later, FBTC immediately reversed course, dumping -200 million USDT, and ARKB dumping -18.9008 million USDT. This group of short-term momentum funds that entered the market on Wednesday, betting on a post-election breakout above $81,500, decisively cut their losses after discovering a large-scale outflow from IBIT and the subsequent collapse of US tech stocks on Thursday. Currently, short-term leveraged long positions have been largely cleared. 2) BlackRock IBIT continued to see a net outflow of -$105 million on November 5th, marking five consecutive trading days of net outflows since October 30th, with a cumulative loss of -$1.04 billion over those five days. 3) The intraday plunge in US stocks directly breached the bullish defenses in the crypto market established on Wednesday, resulting in a staggering $1.03 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives in the past 24 hours (of which $925 million were long positions). To cope with margin calls and reduced risk exposure in the US stock market, traditional institutions indiscriminately redeemed all ETFs on Thursday. 4) Tonight is the last trading day of the week. If the Nasdaq can stabilize after its 5.5% plunge, and if IBIT outflows narrow to the tens of millions and FBTC stops its sell-off tonight, BTC is expected to form a daily-level "double bottom (W bottom)" structure around 75. Conversely, if ETFs experience another panic outflow of over $300 million tonight and break below the 75 level, it will directly test the July support level (715-73 range). 2. Market Analysis Currently, the market is still in a consolidation phase. A move to 749 is definitely expected. Then we need to see tonight's non-farm payroll data and the reaction of US stocks: will it continue to fall, or will it rebound? Regarding the non-farm payroll data: 1) If the non-farm payroll data significantly exceeds expectations and wages are also strong, it may reinforce the pricing of interest rate hikes. I think this is acceptable; it's bearish, but the impact may be relatively limited because the market is already familiar with this logic. Therefore, pay attention to a rebound after the initial sell-off. 2) If the figures are close to or slightly weaker than expected, then a soft landing for wage cooling and an unnecessary over-tightening by the Fed would be most favorable for risk assets, leading to a bullish outlook. 3) However, if the figures are significantly lower than expected and the unemployment rate rises, then we should be wary of the market shifting from interest rate concerns to growth concerns. In that case, US stocks may continue to decline, as may BTC. For more real-time information, please join our community: https://t.me/pabuerbtc