qinbafrank|11月 06, 2026 07:06
Someone asked how to view the current market after last night's sell-off. The answer remains unchanged from the tweet on the 4th: it's still "AI in the middle of the game and baseball in the third inning." Looking back at last night's sell-off, semiconductors were the hardest hit, while cloud computing, software, and applications were less severely affected. As discussed before, many people have formed a fixed mindset of "AI = semiconductors = storage," equating AI with semiconductors, and semiconductors with storage. In reality, AI also has upstream, midstream, and downstream segments. The further downstream the cloud companies and applications/agents go, the more they will benefit, along with various application scenarios.
We need to embrace the shift in the main AI trend. The main AI trend shifts at each stage. In the first and second quarters of this year, memory was the strongest; from August and September onwards, optical computing began to strengthen, and a number of software and SaaS companies that were previously heavily sold off started to recover. Why? Because with the commoditization of models and the decrease in token prices, it's not just upstream hardware that benefits. The cheaper the token, the easier the deployment, and cloud computing, software, enterprise integration, and agents will benefit even more. The next stage may be AI for Science, Bio, and a broader application layer. "This is something we discussed a long time ago.
But that doesn't mean I didn't see the risks before. The tweets I referenced include links to my past tweets from around September and early October, where I predicted significant volatility and correction in the US stock market before the midterm elections. If there was any oversight, it's that I didn't anticipate the market-wide impact of a bill from the radical left of the Democratic Party that was unlikely to be passed. We discussed this last night here: https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2118374779195687066?a=a1HEN8NvKJRrCsQOCGg&s=46.
The core reason I consider this the mid-game of AI rather than its finale is..." This link (https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2117158355034870100?a=aS2lmDuPid7lLO_Bvs8&s=46) discusses how AI's large-scale commercialization has only been going on for three quarters and is still accelerating. This quarter's earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google all revealed in their cloud business conference calls that enterprise AI adoption has entered a diffusion phase. "Enterprise AI is moving from 'buying seats' to 'continuously consuming computing power and agents.' The consumption depth and willingness to pay of existing customers have become the most core growth engine, and the number of new customers is still increasing." "Then, personal agents and AI scientific discoveries are iterating rapidly.
In this context, I find it hard to believe that AI is finished, but it's undeniable that the main beneficiaries and sectors will shift.
It could also be argued that last night's market was pessimistically pricing in the Democrats' radical policies; market sentiment reached an extreme of pessimism, making it a good time to gradually accumulate positions.
Let's do a survey: what are everyone's current views? Which sectors are you buying? How are you buying? How do you set stop-loss and take-profit orders? Or are you continuing to increase your short positions?"
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