三木Trader
三木Trader|Nov 06, 2026 06:34
OuYang is a trader I've followed since I first entered the trading world; he's an incredibly skilled trend trader. @OuYangZhuaiBai In 2018, when BTC was around 3800, he opened a long position on BitMEX, which he held until the platform closed a few months ago. This time, he shorted SOXL, holding it from 260+ all the way down to around 40, for several months. However, I can understand some of the logic behind this short position on SOXL. SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF in the semiconductor sector, which also includes storage-related stocks. A characteristic of these 3x leveraged ETFs is that the leverage is reset daily, resulting in additional volatility losses in volatile markets. For example: A regular ETF rises 3% on the first day and falls 3% on the second, so 100 yuan eventually becomes 99.91 yuan. The corresponding 3x leveraged ETF rises 9% on the first day and falls 9% on the second, so 100 yuan eventually becomes 99.19 yuan. In the same market conditions, the volatility loss of the 3x ETF is significantly greater. In other words, when the index fluctuates repeatedly and eventually returns to its starting point, a 3x leveraged long ETF may actually experience a significant decline. The market essentially goes through three phases: rising, fluctuating, and falling. If you look for an opportunity to short a 3x leveraged long ETF during a sector's upward surge, there are essentially three possible outcomes: The market continues to rise, your judgment is wrong, and you exit with a stop-loss order. The market enters a wide-range fluctuation, and the volatility of the ETF benefits short sellers. The market enters a downward trend, and short sellers' profits further increase. Therefore, the strategy for this trade is not simply betting on a decline in the semiconductor sector. Instead, it's about trying to find a shorting opportunity after a round of upward movement has reached its peak. As long as the subsequent one-sided rise doesn't continue, whether it enters a wide-range fluctuation or directly turns downward, there's a possibility of profiting. Of course, the prerequisite is being able to control the risks of continued upward movement and the cost of holding the short position.
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