I maintain my view that a bottom will appear in November. The logic is that before February next year, everyone wants to end the unexpected surge in AI, not a complete collapse of the US stock market. The logic of the Trump Trade is to use 5-10% of thematic stocks (semiconductors) to drive the entire market; those who believe make money, which is the core reason for the previous exaggerated rise. The advantage of semiconductors compared to other themes is that they are supported by performance, and performance expectations largely rely on the industry's nested structure (similar to DeFi). However, the market has already priced in the performance expectations for the next three years (after adding demand leverage) at current prices. During the rise, some people imagined new valuation models. Whether it can sustain this three years later, my understanding is that Trump won't care about the consequences after he leaves office. Therefore, the expectation after the Democrats come to power is to correct the valuation model of AI to the correct level. The market is already fragile due to war and high oil prices, so a collapse is inevitable. But do the Democrats really want the stock market to die? I don't think so. It's simply bringing the valuation framework back to a reasonable state, especially for semiconductors. High profit margins in hardware are difficult to maintain (due to reduced demand), so there will be a greater emphasis on optimizing software (models) to increase the efficiency of token/GPU utilization. Therefore, the first thing to be affected is the reduction in hardware valuations. What about Trump? He still has two years left in his term. After losing both houses of Congress, his biggest asset is the Federal Reserve (whose policies don't require approval from both houses). His goal is to implement policies smoothly during his term, and for the Democrats to support his policy framework, the stock market is a good tool. Therefore, I believe the upcoming non-farm payrolls and the December interest rate meeting will yield positive results. For the Federal Reserve, their focus is on maintaining overall economic stability. The overheated AI sector is not beneficial for draining resources from other industries, so they have been stubbornly holding off on interest rate cuts. However, once the AI valuation model changes, a rate cut will be a logical next step. Currently, HF has accumulated a large number of short positions, while retail investors have been buying the dip. Once the HF shorts are closed, a short-term market rally will occur, which I believe will begin in late November or early December and continue until the new Congress takes office. A major crash within three months would benefit no one.