彼得兔|Nov 06, 2026 02:37
People always disbelieve that prices will fall when they're rising, and disbelieve that prices will rise when they're falling.
As shown in Figure 1, I mentioned yesterday that ETH was facing resistance around 2450. If it couldn't break through 2470, this upward move was likely just a false breakout. Unexpectedly, it did, proving my prediction correct.
I've emphasized the large-scale structure of ETH many times since September, and I'll reiterate it today.
As shown in Figure 2, the 1505-2807 range represents the first wave of a new trend on the weekly chart. The move from 2807 onwards is a correction of this upward movement. After finding the end of this correction, the next upward wave will begin, mirroring the 1505-2807 move.
When I pointed out in early September that the upward move from 1505 was nearing its end and a correction was beginning, many friends didn't believe it, or rather, didn't want to believe it. Why?
Because market sentiment was high at the time, and most people were still expecting ETH to continue rising. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) dominated the market, and few were willing to accept that the upward trend might be nearing its end.
Now the situation is reversed. I'm telling you all, the drop from 2807 is most likely a correction, not a new trend of decline, and many friends still don't believe it.
Interestingly, my view hasn't changed since September; it's your mindset that's been changing.
Even when this correction is truly over and the first wave of the 4-hour chart has formed, many will still insist it was just a rebound.
As I said before:
"The correction before a new weekly uptrend will further widen market divergence, until those who see BTC at 57800 as a short-term low become outliers, until most people are still shorting at higher levels after the new uptrend begins."
We may not have reached that point yet, but I believe this market sentiment is likely to reappear soon.
Back to the technicals.
As shown in Figure 3, the key support level for ETH in the short term is the 2150-2170 area.
If the price doesn't fall below this range and subsequently manages to regain the 2/1 level of the green Gann angle (2300), then the correction that began at 2807 may end in a consolidation or sideways movement.
Conversely, if the support below is breached, the correction will need to continue downwards to find its end.
My assessment of the larger-scale structure of ETH remains unchanged, but we need to continue monitoring the smaller-scale trends.
Finally, I'll conclude with a quote from Du Mu's "Ode to the Epang Palace":
"The people of Qin had no time to mourn their own fate, yet later generations mourned them; later generations mourned them but did not learn from their mistakes, thus causing later generations to mourn again."
This is true of history, and it is true of the market.
In every market cycle, some forget the risks in the euphoria, and others miss opportunities in the panic.
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