The correlation between US tech stocks and BTC's decline has strengthened! Short on any rebound! Bitcoin's subsequent rebound signals and price level assessment: There is a basis for a short-term rebound, but it is a technical correction, not a trend reversal. The most likely rebound is to 77,000-77,200 (40%), a stronger rebound to 78,300 (30%), and a maximum rebound to around 79K (20%). Why is it only a weak rebound? The root causes haven't improved: US Treasury yields are at 4.85%, the dollar is at 101, and the expectation of a December rate hike remains. Funds lack concerted action: ETFs are weak, miners are switching to AI, and there is internal division among whales. The Fear & Greed 50 level hasn't reached extreme fear yet; the emotional release may not be complete. Trading strategy: If the rebound reaches 77,200-78,300, and there is stagnation or shrinking bullish momentum on the four-hour chart, you can enter a small short position in BTC, with a target price around 73.5K and a stop loss at 79.5K.