Oil prices are in freefall. Brent crude dropped to around $93 a barrel. JPMorgan found a 1.4 million barrel per day surplus in October even while the war was still active, and Middle East exports have quietly recovered to 20.7 million barrels per day from a March low of 9.8 million. No deal has been signed, no ceasefire is in effect but traders have decided the direction of travel points toward de-escalation and they are not waiting around for confirmation. The 17% drop in four sessions is striking because it reveals just how much of the price above $100 was pure conflict premium rather than supply-demand fundamentals.