Trump suffered a complete defeat, so why did US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin surge? Many believe it's because "uncertainty has been resolved," turning negative news into positive news, and global markets breathed a sigh of relief. Wrong. This is merely a superficial explanation. The real answer lies in a long tweet from US Vice President and Trump's running mate, JD Vance. Vance bluntly pointed out the reason for the defeat: "The reason we lost is this war. The war drove up oil prices, drove up prices." He added that even Trump himself admitted this. This explains the market's euphoria: Voters fear war and high oil prices. Now, with Trump's crushing defeat, the market immediately anticipates that war in the Middle East will not break out. Oil prices plummeted, and inflation expectations cooled accordingly. Cooler inflation means the Fed's interest rate hike is less likely. With easing liquidity expectations, risk assets (US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin) surged. But don't celebrate too soon. The market is currently speculating on "peace expectations," not "crypto benefits." With the Democrats controlling Congress, the benefits of crypto legislation have completely vanished. But that doesn't matter—the crypto market has never risen based on legislation; it's driven by market liquidity. The core contradiction now is: Vance is calling for an end to the war to curb inflation; but Trump's tariffs are still pushing up prices. Milton Friedman said, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." War and tariffs are influencing this monetary game. Next, keep a close eye on oil prices. The lower oil prices fall, the looser liquidity becomes, and the stronger BTC will be. But if the fighting resumes in the Middle East, the current euphoria could be abruptly ended.