Parr BTC Market Morning Report - November 5th I. Candlestick Chart 1. Daily Chart (Figure 1) Yesterday's Democratic victory in the midterm elections was seen by the market as a check on Trump, which is beneficial for market stability, coupled with the sharp drop in oil prices. Gold, cryptocurrencies, and the S&P 500 rebounded. BTC jumped directly from the 758 level to 81. Currently, the 81-82 bearish OB zone is crucial. A breakout here would likely make 758 the low point of the pullback, and BTC would continue its upward trend. If unexpected negative news emerges and 82 is rejected, then expect continued consolidation between 81 and 75. Under the current circumstances, without major negative news, a breakout is more probable. 2. Hourly Situation (Figure 2) The price has been fluctuating around 805 all day. It could move either way up or down. If there's positive news in US stocks tonight, it will likely continue its upward trend, potentially breaking through to test 83 or 84. If US stocks are negative, a pullback to test the 785 oblique level would be normal. Let's see how it plays out tonight. II. Data, US Stocks, Macroeconomics 1. Data 1) BTC ETF The BTC spot ETF market officially ended its three-day losing streak (October 30 - November 3) of $1.158 billion, recording a net inflow of $74.5677 million in a single day. Yesterday, we said Fidelity was a speculative investor, and that we should follow their lead in spot trading. Yesterday, Fidelity went on a buying spree, buying a whopping $237 million in a single day, leading a "momentum-driven" group (ARKB ($19.9032 million), BITB ($15.2051 million), BTCO ($3.9788 million)) in a massive bottom-fishing synergy of $276 million. However, BlackRock (IBIT) option and basis arbitrage position liquidation led to a redemption sell-off of $201 million in a single day. From the perspective of the BTC ETF, yesterday's buying confirmed the validity of the 758-765 level as a temporary bottom. But the 80-815 area remains a battleground between support and resistance. If IBIT ends its four-day losing streak tonight (with a significant narrowing or positive outflow), and BTC stabilizes above 815, then the upside potential to 836-85 will be reopened. 2) BTC Total Liquidation: 1 day 235.10M (Long 15.77M / Short 219.33M), yesterday's surge resulted in short liquidation. 3) Liquidation Highs: Maximum Liquidation Levels: 81,900 (147.5M), 81,250 (136.7M); Maximum Liquidation Levels: 75,650 ($238.0M), 75,500 (216.0M) 2. US Stocks: The Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections. The Dow Jones rose approximately 3.0%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%. The US 10-year yield fell back to approximately 4.88%. Crude oil fell significantly, while gold rose. Large, cash-rich tech companies performed relatively strongly, while some data center builders and highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies were under pressure. Analysis: The market is trading expectations of potentially limited fiscal expansion, possible adjustments to the Iran war policy, and potential tightening of regulations for AI data centers. However, these policies have not yet been implemented by the new Congress, and market bets should not be taken as legally binding law. Next, pay attention to the fiscal budget, national debt supply, data center approvals, electricity demand, and crypto asset legislation. For the AI industry chain, regulatory risks may further widen the valuation gap between large cloud vendors and infrastructure companies that rely on financing for expansion. 3. Trading Recommendations Currently, I believe BTC is still relatively strong, but it is also heavily reliant on the US stock market. After the midterm elections, the dominant market variable has shifted from pre-election uncertainty to post-election fiscal, energy, and AI regulatory repricing. As mentioned in yesterday's live stream, the trading balance has shifted from betting on pullbacks to shorting to going long, which I believe will be the long-term trend. In the short term, we'll see if it continues to break upwards. Or perhaps it will pull back and continue its consolidation. But one thing is certain: now, going long is preferred over going short, and pullbacks are opportunities to buy spot. For more real-time information, welcome to join our community: http://t.me/pabuerbtc