qinbafrank|Nov 05, 2026 09:01
After a cursory review of this masterclass, I noticed a few minor issues, which I'll offer as a starting point for discussion:
1. The first point, "This year's expectation is a shift from interest rate cuts to rate hikes, with the turning point around May, coinciding with Bitcoin's drop from over 80,000 to over 50,000," is flawed. If the initial expectation of a rate hike was strongest in March due to the Iran war and the subsequent surge in oil prices, then in early April, Trump's extreme pressure culminated in a no-war agreement, leading to a significant market easing and a sharp rebound in US stocks, with Bitcoin also rising for over a month. From Trump's visit to China in May to the signing of the Islamabad memorandum in mid-June (before Warsh's first FOMC speech), the market's expectation of easing and compromise grew stronger. There's no reason to expect a rate hike at that time; the 2-year US Treasury yield was actually falling during that period (strong rate hike expectations would cause the US2Y yield to rise). Bitcoin fell to $59,000 during this very period.
The core issue was the significant reduction in bank reserve requirements and a slight tightening of liquidity in late May, causing Bitcoin to drop from $80,000 to $59,000. We discussed this further at the time: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2070710053863317784?a=VbZuXjH1vlYUuZ9bpUc&s=46.
2. The last point: "Both companies are killing free cash flow, but Google is in more danger than Amazon. Google search growth dropped from 17% to 12%, while Amazon's revenue still grew by 40%. When it rebounded, Amazon was significantly stronger."
This compares the growth rates of the two giants' different business segments. Google search advertising growth dropped from 17% to 12%, but Amazon's e-commerce business only grew by 6% while its advertising growth was 12%. The 40% growth rate is for Amazon's AWS cloud business, while Google Cloud's growth rate is 103%.
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