[Crypto Market - Hayes Pours Cold Water] Anthropic Early Shareholders to Face 83% Dilution? He Says This Wave of AI IPOs Will First Drop BTC BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a long article today titled "D is for Dilution." His core message is quite harsh: After AI giants like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, the insider unlocking and dilution will be too severe, making it difficult for the stock price to hold up; once the AI narrative cools, bank credit will tighten, dollar liquidity will worsen, and this will be unfriendly to BTC in the short term. He himself released the following figures (estimates, not company commitments): * SpaceX: Approximately 8.6 billion more shares will be unlocked by June 2027, roughly equivalent to another 50% dilution, the bulk of which will go to Musk's holdings. * Anthropic: Based on the updated S-1, early public investors may face approximately 83% dilution by June 2027; at a valuation of 1.5 trillion, to hold onto the stock price, they would need to absorb approximately 1.245 trillion in buy orders. * OpenAI: Has not yet submitted its S-1. He guesses that about 5% will surface in circulation first, followed by sales from employees and early investors; rumors of fundraising are still circulating, with valuations and funding amounts being cut. Why did he bring up the crypto market? In his eyes, AI stocks are "atmospheric assets"—if the stock price falls, people will doubt the entire AI story; those lending to data centers and chip factories will also back down. If banks expand their balance sheets more slowly, less US dollars will flow into risky assets. BTC thrives on this liquidity. His own position is also straightforward: his family office, Maelstrom, will sit and wait until the environment eases. In the long term, he still bets that central banks will eventually inject liquidity to rescue the market, and only then will BTC reap the big profits—a scenario of taking the hit first, then enjoying the spoils. What do you think: Are you more afraid of AI IPOs damaging liquidity, or do you believe more in "central banks will intervene sooner or later, just wait it out"? Source: https://cryptohayes.(substack.com)/p/d-is-for-dilution Trend Page: https://((x.com))/i/trending/2118229632445239671 Cointelegraph: https://((x.com))/Cointelegraph/status/2118206778357813357