律动BlockBeats|11月 05, 2026 04:41
[Bitunix Analyst: Democrats Regain Control over Fed Appointments, Employment Resilience Still Limits Room for Rate Cuts]
BlockBeats reports that on November 5th, the US midterm election results reshaped the power structure in Washington, with Democrats regaining control of both houses of Congress, while Republicans lost full control of the White House and Congress. Markets responded on Wednesday with improved risk appetite, with the S&P 500 rising 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3%. Trump also indicated his willingness to accept the election results and cooperate with the Democrats, temporarily easing concerns about political conflict. However, the more profound impact of the election lies in the checks and balances on the Federal Reserve's appointment power: the Senate confirmation power has shifted to the Democrats, which will limit the White House from changing the structure of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors through new appointments. The Senate Banking Committee, led by Elizabeth Warren, is also expected to strengthen its oversight of Chairman Warsh and the transparency of monetary policy.
However, strengthened institutional checks and balances do not necessarily mean that interest rate policy will necessarily shift towards easing. Data released by ADP showed that the private sector added 86,000 jobs in October, higher than the market expectation of 69,000. Wage growth remained at 3.2%, and wages for job-hoppers increased by 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of corporate hiring and labor mobility. Job openings in the JOLTS sector increased by 333,000 to 7.523 million, while layoffs fell to 1.641 million, indicating that the labor market has not yet experienced a comprehensive deterioration. However, the continued decline in jobs in professional and business services also suggests that the industry recovery is uneven.
The next key event for the market is the non-farm payroll report to be released on November 6th, with an expected increase of 65,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. If employment remains stable, the Federal Reserve will have more room to monitor inflation; only if the data weakens significantly will the market likely to raise its expectations for a dovish policy again. The Reserve Bank of Australia's rate hike to 4.85% this week also reflects that global inflationary pressures have not yet subsided. Overall, the election reduced some political uncertainty but did not eliminate the contradiction between monetary policy and economic fundamentals.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink