"War Stalled, Oil Prices Collapsed, BTC's 'Watershed Moment' Found, But Don't Rush to Shout 100,000" I previously stated that the November 3rd midterm elections would be a key watershed moment for Bitcoin's price movement. Now the watershed has materialized! Bitcoin has rebounded rapidly from 75,700 to above 80,000. The possibility of Trump launching another large-scale bombing campaign against Iran has been significantly reduced by the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections. The transmission chain affecting BTC and US stocks is as follows: Democrats win the midterm elections → Schumer uses the "purse strings" to block war funding → Trump wants to attack Iran but lacks the funds → The risk of war in the Middle East decreases significantly → Oil prices plummet by 10%, WTI falls to $88 → Inflation expectations cool → The 10-year US Treasury yield falls from 5.5% to 4.96% → Liquidity pressure eases → The US dollar weakens, and gold, BTC, and US stocks rebound simultaneously. However, we cannot assume that BTC will immediately surge to 100,000. This is a transmission chain of "negative news easing," not a transmission chain of "positive news bursting forth." Oil prices fell because "war may not break out," not because "the economy is strong enough to not need war." Interest rates fell because "inflation expectations cooled," not because "the Fed is going to ease monetary policy." The 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 4.95%, continuing to absorb liquidity from global markets. The Fed will raise interest rates again around December 10th this year and around March 2027. These three "easings" can only allow BTC to recover from its panic low of 76K to above 80K. Expectations of interest rate hikes and high US Treasury yields will continue to suppress BTC's price increase. What could truly push BTC to 100,000 are three other things: The Fed shifting from rate hikes to rate cuts; A significant drop in the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields; A renewed and sustained large net inflow into ETFs; The US stock market's AI narrative regaining its footing. None of these four things have happened yet. The probability of a December rate hike remains at 79%, ETF net inflows for the year have turned negative, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is still falling. Therefore, this is a correction, not the start of a new bull market. 84,500 is a litmus test; if it breaks through, look to 86,900-88,000; if it fails to hold, it will likely fluctuate widely between 80,000 and 84,000.