小龙先生|Nov 04, 2026 22:48
☀️《Three-Dimensional Integrated Trading System|BTC Market Morning Express》
---Following the midterm elections, the likelihood of a US-Iran war has decreased, the logical chain has changed, and the logic behind Bitcoin's price movement has also changed!
BTC is currently around 80,000, having rebounded from the 75,700 level in a V-shaped recovery, and has once again stood above the key 80,000 mark. Market sentiment has clearly recovered from the panic.
1. Bullish and Bearish Volume
Looking at the four-hour chart, bullish volume has significantly increased, while bearish volume is very weak, with almost no sign of a counterattack.
During this upward surge, each pullback was quickly bought back, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels. This volume structure suggests a healthy upward trend, not a false breakout driven by excessive funds.
2. On-Chain Data
ETF outflows are rapidly decreasing, from over 600 million per day to 400 million, and then to over 100 million. The outflow rate has slowed significantly, likely approaching an inflection point, and may even be turning into net inflows. This is a key signal; institutional withdrawal is nearing its end. In the spot market, buying pressure is increasing, with buy orders significantly outnumbering sell orders, indicating genuine buying activity.
Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index is currently at 34, within the fear zone, suggesting that sentiment hasn't fully heated up yet. This implies there's still room for upward movement, and it's not a top driven by widespread panic.
3. Structural Pattern
The price around 75,700 largely coincides with the 50-day moving average on the weekly chart, forming a relatively solid double bottom. The price has recovered the 79,800 level with increased volume, a key Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a shift from a breakdown to an upward correction.
The most crucial resistance level is around 84,300, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the point where the previous attempt to break higher failed.
Whether this area can be broken with significant volume will determine whether this rebound develops into a trend or is just another false breakout.
4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals
Schumer's statement about halting war funding to Iran caused crude oil prices to plummet by 9%, significantly easing geopolitical tensions and providing the most direct boost to this rebound.
Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.5% to 4.96%, easing pressure on non-interest-bearing assets and marginally improving liquidity.
However, medium-term pressures should not be ignored. The probability of a December rate hike is close to 80%, and the cumulative net inflow into ETFs this year has turned negative, meaning institutions have essentially given back all their profits for the year.
Therefore, this rebound is characterized as a correction, not the start of a new bull market.
BTC Short-to-Medium-Term Market Outlook:
Short-term bias is bullish. This rebound initially targets the 84,300 level; whether it can break through is crucial.
A breakout with volume would open up space between 86,900 and 88,000. If it encounters resistance here, it will likely fluctuate widely between 80,000 and 84,000 for some time.
The 79,800 level is short-term support, while the double bottom at 75,700 is the ultimate defense line; a break below this level would require a reassessment.
The trading strategy is simple: don't chase the rally. A more comfortable entry point is when the price retraces to around 80,000 or stabilizes at 79,800.
Remember this: this is a corrective rally. Secure your profits carefully and don't be greedy for the last bit of profit.
Bitcoin (BTC) 3D Integrated Trading Analysis, Natural Trading Theory, Volume Refinement
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