Top-quartile venture beat top-quartile buyout through the internet buildout and again through mobile and cloud, and a16z's Jen Kha argues we're at the start of the next wave. Tech buyouts have long been the "safe" bet in private markets. Now the stress is showing: - In the first half of 2026, venture funds marked their tech holdings up 16%, while buyout funds marked theirs down 4% - 70% of the debt foreclosed in 2025 and 2026 came from deals done in 2021 or 2022 - A typical buyout now needs 10 to 12% EBITDA growth a year to make 2.5x in five years, up from about 5% in 2015 - Top 5% venture funds from 2007-16 returned 5.3x their capital in cash, versus 3.5x for top 5% buyout funds "Tech buyout is a late-cycle asset class. It's most effective once a technology wave has settled and when business models are predictable enough to borrow against. When a new technology wave drops, all bets are off. By contrast, that's when venture shines." Full piece from a16z's Jen Kha: https://www.a16z.news/p/is-private-equity-cooked Not an offer or solicitation. None of the above should be taken as investment advice or an advertisement for investment services. Please see http://a16z.com/disclosures for more information.