Greeks.live|Nov 04, 2026 14:14
With the midterm elections now behind us, a “divided government” scenario has largely taken shape. The market movement has been quite clear: Bitcoin completed a deep V-shaped recovery from 75.8k to 78.4k within the day, and Nasdaq futures turned positive in tandem, as the market rapidly digests the election results.
Changes in several core pricing dynamics:
U.S. Stocks and Treasuries: The change in control of Congress means large-scale fiscal stimulus will face obstacles, easing concerns over the supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries. The decline in the 10-year yield has directly unlocked valuations for tech stocks and risk assets, and the premium for policy unpredictability is rapidly receding.
Crypto Regulation and Fundamentals: Democratic control will lead to a stalemate on deregulation legislation such as the “Clarity Act,” and the compliance revaluation premium for DeFi and altcoins has been disproved in the short term. However, for
bitcoin:native , its current core pricing anchor has long shifted from “Washington policy” to “U.S. dollar macro liquidity.”
Implied volatility (IV) across major maturities has risen by about 1%. While the IV spike triggered by the midterm elections has largely stabilized, the options market currently remains largely bearish on the prospects for any significant price movement by year-end.
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