Adam@Greeks.live
[email protected]|Nov 04, 2026 14:12
With the midterm elections concluded, the "divided government" landscape is largely established. The market action clearly reflects this: Bitcoin completed a sharp V-shaped recovery from 75.8k to 78.4k intraday, and Nasdaq futures also turned positive, indicating the market is rapidly digesting the election results. Several key changes in pricing logic: US Stocks and Treasuries: The change of control in Congress means large-scale fiscal stimulus is hampered, alleviating concerns about long-term US Treasury supply. The decline in 10-year yields directly loosens valuation constraints for tech stocks and risk assets, and the policy unpredictability premium is rapidly receding. Crypto Regulation and Fundamentals: Democratic control will likely lead to a tug-of-war on deregulation legislation such as the Clarity Act, temporarily disproving the compliance revaluation premium for DeFi and altcoins. However, for BTC, its core pricing anchor has already shifted from "Washington policy" to "US dollar macro liquidity." Impact values (IVs) across major maturities have risen by about 1%, stabilizing the IV increase brought about by the midterm elections. However, the options market is currently not optimistic about any significant market movement by the end of the year.
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