Joe Burnett, MSBA|11月 04, 2026 14:08
Will quantum kill Bitcoin?
Cracking a Bitcoin key takes ~1,200 reliable qubits. The best demo so far: 96 qubits.
Quantum is a real problem. However, Bitcoin has time and options, even in the worst case.
My full 26-minute presentation:
Timestamps:
00:00 Will quantum kill Bitcoin? The short answer
01:15 Bits vs. qubits, explained simply
01:48 Why 1 reliable qubit takes ~400 physical qubits
02:28 The 1 algorithm that actually threatens Bitcoin
03:56 The only part of Bitcoin at risk
04:09 Why unspent addresses keep your key hidden
05:03 Satoshi's coins, reused addresses and Taproot
05:43 Long exposure vs. short exposure attacks
07:28 90% of Bitcoin is hidden or fixable
08:36 1,200 qubits needed. The record is 96.
09:34 Why 96 is further from 1,200 than it looks
10:57 Quantum's record: a 15-bit key your phone cracks in 1 second
12:20 51% to 70% of experts expect it within 15 years
12:56 Satoshi answered this in 2010
13:26 2 "quantum-proof" schemes that got broken
14:24 Bigger signatures could cut Bitcoin below 1 TPS
15:37 BIP-360 and 4 quantum-safe address designs
17:15 New quantum-safe signatures
17:42 Triggers: when to switch off old signatures
18:21 Freeze, slow down or leave old coins alone?
18:58 Rescue plans: Lifeboat and zero-knowledge proofs
20:58 Worst case: a quantum computer arrives tomorrow
22:34 "Safe at rest and safely move"
22:53 What happens to Satoshi's ~1 million coins?
23:41 Why I'd let the market absorb them
24:50 No need to rush. Keep building.
25:54 Bottom line: quantum is an engineering problem
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