金十数据
金十数据|Nov 04, 2026 14:01
[US Stocks Show Divergence Following Midterm Elections; Congressional Control a Key Variable] Jinshi Data, November 4th – While historically, the US stock market typically rises after midterm elections regardless of party victory, some Wall Street strategists warn clients against excessive optimism this time. From a fundamental perspective, the Democratic Party's expanded political influence may lead to stricter federal and state regulations on the artificial intelligence industry, potentially dragging down corporate earnings growth. Furthermore, persistently high interest rates raise questions about whether historical patterns will repeat themselves. Further analysis reveals that even though historical data shows the stock market typically rises the year following midterm elections, the historical performance is not always one-sidedly positive. Data compiled by Carson Investment Research shows that since the early 1950s, when Republican presidents were in power and Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, the stock market performance has been among the weaker scenarios, with the S&P 500 averaging only 4.9% annually. In contrast, when Republican presidents were in power and Congress was divided between two parties, the market performance was generally better, with the S&P 500 averaging 14% annually. Carson's data also shows that, in the four-year presidential term cycle, midterm election years have historically been the most volatile years for the market, with an average maximum drawdown of nearly 18%.
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