方鸣🔶BNB
方鸣🔶BNB|Nov 04, 2026 13:24
The Democrats swept the House of Representatives, gaining control of Congress, and also claimed control of the Senate. The market experienced a classic rollercoaster ride, initially falling below 76,000 overnight to a seven-week low, before rebounding back above 78,000. In the short term, the election eliminated uncertainty, leading to the rebound. However, in the medium to long term, the Democrats' policy orientation may not be favorable for crypto, especially regarding key legislation like the Clarity Act. Some reports have specifically discussed what a Democratic Senate victory means for crypto, concluding that the legislative path will change, but not overnight. Therefore, the nature of this rebound should be clear: it's a release of risk, not a trend reversal. Besides the election, two other news items are worth mentioning. First, the Moscow Exchange plans to launch Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT trading on December 1st. This is a severely underestimated signal from the market, as Russia has been under sanctions for so long, and the fact that its mainstream exchanges are now compliantly listing crypto indicates that crypto has moved from a gray area to legal status in these isolated economies. The second point is that the CFTC approved the trading of perpetual stock futures on US exchanges, which pushes the boundaries of derivatives significantly and, in the long run, will further blur the lines between traditional finance and on-chain finance. Furthermore, Grayscale's Pandl stated that the Binance hack was only a temporary setback; such a statement from one of the largest crypto asset management firms represents the assessment at the institutional level. Currently, liquidity remains the biggest concern. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $116 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows. Looking at a longer timeframe, previous days saw single-day outflows reaching $399 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone experiencing outflows of $405 million. This round of selling can be described as short-term behavior. A large proportion of ETF redemptions are due to passive rebalancing and year-end tax arrangements, not active short selling. But regardless of the reasons, money is flowing out—that's a fact. In contrast, two institutions have consistently been buying: Tether's CEO stated that the company holds approximately 150,000 Bitcoins, with over 730 million users globally; Strategy added 811 Bitcoins last week and repurchased $208 million worth of STRC. Therefore, the current structure involves ETF redemptions and industrial capital buying, with these two forces offsetting each other, causing the price to fluctuate within this range. Only a breakout and sustained move above 80,000-82,000 will signal the start of a new upward trend for Bitcoin. Currently, there are no reversal signals, so it's advisable to observe patiently. It's best to enter on the right side of the price movement; entering on the left side carries significant risk, so caution is advised!
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