Nancy
Nancy|Nov 04, 2026 13:12
A Polymarket account, simply named 0xA2, earned approximately $917,000 in a single day during the US midterm elections, topping the platform's daily profit rankings. Even more outrageous, his second-largest position was $1.42 million betting on "the US confirming the existence of extraterrestrial life before 2027." Is this person a god, or a gambler? According to Decrypt, his main position was betting that the Republicans wouldn't even win a single swing state Senate seat. With a bet of approximately $610,000, the probability of this outcome was only 36%. After the election, the Democrats won both the House and Senate, the odds rose to 87%, and his position grew to approximately $1.48 million, an increase of over $800,000. He also correctly bet on the Democrats winning the Texas Senate, already pocketing approximately $106,000. Decrypt also compared this to a typical trading day in March of this year, where the top-performing account only earned $154,000. On the same night, Bitcoin wasn't so calm. When the vote count began, BTC briefly fell to $75,618, a seven-week low, before rebounding to around $78,000 within three hours. Cointelegraph reported that approximately $288 million in long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. According to Kelly Ye, Head of Research at Talos, after polling stations closed, the probability of a Democratic sweep on Kalshi jumped from about 74% to 99%. Ye believes that the speed at which the market can move around 24/7 while traditional exchanges are closed is clearly visible on election night. However, his money isn't fully in hand yet. The Alaskan results are still pending, and Polymarket rates a 14% probability of an upset there. If the results reverse, this main position could be lost. Frankly, with the same vote count, some people made over $800,000 while others lost everything; the only difference is whether they voted on the right side. If you had this $1.48 million position, would you sell half now to take profits, or wait for the final Alaskan vote? Other key points for today are shown in the image below ⚠️ This does not constitute investment advice. · DYOR Midterm Elections Polymarket Crypto Evening News This article is sponsored by AVE https://share.ave.ai?lang=en&code=nancy.c0813
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