TraderS | 缺德道人|11月 04, 2026 08:35
I had a bit of diarrhea from the change in environment, so I stayed home this afternoon. This gave me some time to carefully summarize the midterm election results.
Trump lost six states, with the most notable losses being in Texas and South Carolina. The loss in Texas, a redneck stronghold, was particularly disheartening for Trump supporters.
However, the good news is that his base is still intact, just not large enough to win the general election. His previous victories were largely due to a decisive move that attracted independent voters.
Furthermore, a closer look reveals that Trump also used his influence in Texas and South Carolina to help the Republicans win the primaries. This means that even if there are internal divisions, they are still manageable. The party's candidates will need Trump's support in the 2028 presidential election.
This morning's sharp drop was likely due to the market pricing in the previously unconsidered South Carolina Senate results.
For the market, in any case, short-term uncertainty has disappeared, and the negative news has been fully priced in, hence the market rebound after the results were announced.
However, in the medium to long term, real-world issues such as the debt ceiling, government shutdown, and data centers will soon return to the forefront. However, the APEC meeting in Shenzhen in mid-to-late November may bring some positive sentiment/news.
While statistics show that US stocks tend to rise in the 12 months following the election, this may be more significant for long-term spot holders than for those accustomed to short-term trading in the cryptocurrency market. After all, you can't guarantee you won't be liquidated along the way. In the short term, however, the prices of various assets are currently attractive enough; Bitcoin, gold, and large-cap tech stocks are basically in a state where you can profit by buying almost anything. Therefore, I have been accumulating at low prices with low leverage recently, and I plan to hold for a longer period, at least until the K-line has recovered sufficiently, market sentiment has improved again, and even when people are saying a bull market is imminent, before selling.
Specifically, after the non-farm payroll data is released on Friday, there really aren't any visible negative factors. If we can rebound for two weeks from now until the APEC meeting around November 18th, then consolidate at a high level, and then price in risk and start to decline before the FOMC meeting on December 10th and the expiration of temporary funding on December 11th triggering the debt ceiling battle, that would be a relatively ideal scenario.
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