Two possible outcomes of the US midterm elections are now clear. What does this mean for Trump's potential attack on Iran, and for US stocks and Bitcoin? Latest results from the prediction platform Polymarket: 1. House of Representatives: Democrats 99.2%, Republicans 0.99%; 2. Senate: Democrats 96%, Republicans 4%. Based on the data, this means the market is pricing in not a "divided Congress," but a "Democratic sweep," and Trump may suffer a complete defeat! Outcome 1: Democratic Sweep (Winning Both Houses) A crushing defeat for Trump would likely lead him to seek revenge in the Middle East, significantly increasing the probability of military action against Iran. US Stocks: Short-term double whammy. Regulatory pressure, coupled with Middle East tensions pushing up oil prices and inflation, will cause risk assets to fall first. BTC: Regulatory nightmare + geopolitical shock. With no hope for crypto legislation, it will suffer along with risk assets in the short term. Outcome 2: Divided Congress (Democratic House, Republican Senate) Trump's defeat is not a complete rout, but rather a lame-duck defeat. Not being cornered, his political motivation for pressing the war button on Iran is weak. US Stocks: The most comfortable scenario; the policy stalemate has eased pressure on long-term interest rates, giving tech stocks a breather. BTC: The macro environment remains unfavorable, but don't expect it to be the main focus; it's still struggling around the 76K level. Core Summary: Regardless of the outcome, US stocks are waiting for a temporary rebound after the "shoe drops"; however, I believe it's just an oversold bounce. The cracks in the AI bubble have appeared and will only widen! US stocks are currently forming a top. As for Bitcoin, the real lifeline remains 76K. Congress can't help it; it depends on US Treasury yields, Fed rate hikes, and the performance of ETFs. Ultimately, things won't be too good; the bull market is in the process of turning back. ----Mr. Xiaolong