Former BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, who liquidated his positions on October 24th and avoided the crash, is now back to add insult to injury His tweet reads: "Dollar liquidity is returning, but BTC will continue to weaken until the Fed or banks start expanding their balance sheets." Let me explain his meaning: I'm out, you guys hold on. Unless the Fed intervenes directly to print money, Bitcoin won't recover. I agree with his core logic regarding macro liquidity; Bitcoin is indeed unlikely to see significant price movements in the short to medium term. Why? As I analyzed in my weekly BTC market report last week: Macroeconomically, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is as high as 85%, and long-term US Treasury yields are hovering above 5%, resulting in extremely high funding costs. In terms of market sentiment, Binance was hacked, US tech stocks have reported consecutive disappointing earnings reports, the Nasdaq has a 40% correlation with BTC, and external factors are still draining liquidity. On-chain data shows net outflows from ETFs, some whales are turning bearish, and if 76K is broken, the next support level is 73.5K. Short-term outlook: Rebound (target 78K-79K resistance); Medium-term outlook: Bearish with a bottom (73.5K or even 70K); Long-term outlook: Still bullish. Hayes is holding cash on the sidelines, waiting for massive monetary easing. If you don't have his cash reserves, don't try to withstand this medium-term sell-off. Keep your ammunition ready, wait for the price to bottom out, and then pick up the pieces at a loss.