🚨 US MIDTERMS 2026: WHAT IT MEANS FOR CRYPTO Today the US holds its midterm elections. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. For crypto, this isn’t just a political event. It’s a potential macro catalyst. THE HISTORICAL PATTERN Bitcoin always suffers in midterm years: 2014: -56% 2018: -73% 2022: -64% Then this happened: 2015: +34% 2019: +92% 2023: +155% According to Binance Research, Bitcoin averaged +54% in the 12 months following midterms. S&P 500 averaged +19%. The year after midterms is historically the strongest window in the cycle. THE CLARITY ACT The main stake is the CLARITY Act. This bill was supposed to end the SEC vs CFTC war over crypto jurisdiction. Define what’s a security, what’s a commodity. Give the industry legal clarity. Right now it’s stalled in the Senate. Experts gave it less than 10% odds of passing before midterms. If Democrats take the Senate - odds drop even further. Possibly until 2030. If Republicans hold the majority - the window stays open. Whoever controls the Senate Banking Committee controls the future of US crypto regulation GEOPOLITICS Meanwhile Iran escalated attacks on energy infrastructure. Oil briefly hit $95. The IEA released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. Binance Research says it directly: in the short term, the Iran conflict will move markets harder than the elections themselves. High oil = inflation = pressure on risk assets. Markets don’t like uncertainty. They like when it ends - regardless of the outcome. Once results are clear, political noise fades, regulatory expectations reprice, and capital starts rotating into risk assets. Bitcoin is trading below $80K right now. The market is in wait-and-see mode. If history repeats - the next 12 months will be very interesting. I’m watching closely. When I see the signal, I’ll post the entry level here publicly.