Caleb Franzen|Nov 03, 2026 18:40
Bitcoin hasn't made new lows in 125 days.
I decided to look at past bear markets and see if there was ever a case where it hadn't made new lows in 125 days and then made new lows for more bear market capitulation.
There was only one case: 2018.
But here's the difference...
Bitcoin eventually made new lows 143 days later, in Nov.'18, and fell an additional -45% until the inevitable bear market lows in December 2018.
In 2018, Bitcoin was producing lower highs and was still trading below its 200-day MA cloud.
Today, Bitcoin produced a higher high and is trading above its 200-day MA cloud.
In other words, is it even a valid comp?
Not really.
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