Caleb Franzen
Caleb Franzen|Nov 03, 2026 18:40
Bitcoin hasn't made new lows in 125 days. I decided to look at past bear markets and see if there was ever a case where it hadn't made new lows in 125 days and then made new lows for more bear market capitulation. There was only one case: 2018. But here's the difference... Bitcoin eventually made new lows 143 days later, in Nov.'18, and fell an additional -45% until the inevitable bear market lows in December 2018. In 2018, Bitcoin was producing lower highs and was still trading below its 200-day MA cloud. Today, Bitcoin produced a higher high and is trading above its 200-day MA cloud. In other words, is it even a valid comp? Not really.
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