彼得兔
彼得兔|Nov 03, 2026 12:34
In my video on October 11th, I mentioned that if gold couldn't break through 4220, it would likely break the previous low. On October 12th, XAU ended its rebound at 4217 and broke below 3942. What's next? As shown in the monthly chart (Figure 1), the decline in gold from 5602 is a correction against the rise indicated by the purple or black line. Currently, it's very likely a correction against the black segment, meaning the adjustment is significant. As shown in Figure 2, the red segment's decline and the blue segment's rebound are of the same level. Only if gold breaks and holds above 4187 can we assume the decline from 4697 has ended and a rebound of the same level as the blue segment is underway; otherwise, it will continue searching for a bottom. 3850-3870 is a crucial support zone. If the weekly candlestick breaks below this zone and fails to recover, it will continue to decline. Many people only see gold's rise from 1160 to 5602 since 2018, but they don't see the nearly seven-year correction that preceded it. How many seven-year periods does one have in a lifetime? When gold rebounded to $5400 in March, I told everyone that the upward trend had ended and it would fall below $4000. Many friends who started accumulating gold in 2018, or even 2015 and 2016, followed this view and sold at $5200+. Conversely, those who bought above $5000 didn't believe this prediction, and then at the end of June, $3942 appeared. The major rebound I predicted in early July was validated at $4697, but this didn't change the overall trend of gold. The break below $3942 on October 30th confirmed this prediction. Trading opportunities are relatively fewer for assets in a major correction. Allocating a portion of your portfolio to gold as an investment is fine. Short-term rebounds are possible, but trending markets are rare. Therefore, it's better to focus your energy on other assets. I will share market analysis and trading strategies for US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals in the gold group. Perhaps we'll see trending markets soon?
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