方鸣🔶BNB
方鸣🔶BNB|11月 03, 2026 12:20
Let's discuss the current situation of Bitcoin from the perspective of USDT market share. Looking at the Bitcoin inverse index (see Figure 1), it has seen five consecutive positive days, including this week. A higher USDT market capitalization percentage indicates that more cryptocurrency is being sold and converted into USDT. Currently, USDT accounts for about 7% of the market capitalization. It's a typical contrarian indicator for Bitcoin; when USDT rises, Bitcoin falls, and when its market capitalization percentage falls, Bitcoin rises. Currently, USDT's market capitalization percentage has seen five consecutive positive weeks. If it continues to rise next week, then USDT's market capitalization percentage will decline. Its current trend is very similar to a historical pattern, as shown in Figure 1 (which I've drawn). USDT will likely experience a false breakout to the upside, followed by a pullback and a drop below the structural line. This would then logically initiate an upward trend for Bitcoin. You can compare Figure 1 with the Bitcoin chart. If the market capitalization percentage falsely breaks out to above 7.15%, Bitcoin will likely experience a sharp drop, reaching around $750,000 before recovering, thus perfectly filling the gap below. When USDT breaks below the structural line, Bitcoin will break upwards. Therefore, it's best to observe this week and not trade yet. You can wait until Monday's close to buy the coins you're optimistic about. Note: Bitcoin must close with a bearish candle. If it closes with a bullish candle, the trend is invalid, indicating further decline. However, I personally lean towards a rebound in mid-month. Many altcoins have been suppressed for too long and are just waiting for a catalyst to launch. Bitcoin is that catalyst. Even a slight rebound or sideways movement could trigger a series of breakouts for many quality coins. In summary: If Bitcoin closes bearish next week, then next week will be a rebound, and the market will turn green. USDT breaking below the structural line means Bitcoin will break the $100,000 mark. Conversely, if Bitcoin closes bullish next week, then you should definitely liquidate your positions after the rebound. However, the former is more likely, while the latter is just a worst-case scenario. So don't panic now; everything is unknown until the situation is completely disrupted!
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