Predicting the most likely scenario in the midterm elections: A divided Congress (Democrats win the House, Republicans retain the Senate) This is the baseline scenario for current funding pricing. Trump's bills will be blocked in the House, making tax cuts and fiscal expansion policies difficult to implement. This corresponds to the "divided government" scenario in the chart: the market is relatively stable with increased volatility, long-term bonds are supported, and a large one-sided market trend is unlikely.