风火山林|11月 03, 2026 04:55
Currently, looking at the market, BTC's hourly chart shows a drop to around 765 followed by a rebound to around 77, indicating a significant number of bearish sentiment. A major drop is unlikely. However, the rebound is accompanied by low volume, suggesting a recovery, and I believe the bearish momentum has largely dissipated. I need a clear bullish signal before entering the market myself! 76,260 is a critical level; holding above it confirms the bottoming structure, while a break below would target 75,900 or even lower. The first resistance level to watch is the 77,530 mid-band; only a break above this level would suggest a move towards 78,500.
The liquidation structure also doesn't support a deep drop. There are over $1.3 billion in short positions liquidated at 80,800, while less than $800 million in long positions are being liquidated at 73,700. Most of the leverage that needed to be liquidated has already been liquidated; further downside would be difficult, not sustainable.
Macroeconomic factors still exert downward pressure; the election, non-farm payrolls, and interest rate hike expectations will all cause volatility. However, volatility does not equate to a deep drop. My assessment remains unchanged: a sharp drop is highly unlikely to occur from here. The 76,000-76,500 range has already largely priced in the price action, and a large-scale consolidation followed by a slow, grinding upward climb is expected.
In terms of trading strategy, I won't chase low-volume rebounds, but if a significant drop occurs, I will definitely be willing to buy. I will buy in batches, keeping cash on hand, focusing only on Bitcoin and stocks with strong consensus. I will reassess if key levels are broken. The concern is chasing highs, not fearing a significant drop.
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