Stay defensive and nimble into the midterm results and Friday's payrolls. Brent dropped 7% on hopes of progress in the Strait of Hormuz negotiations. But the market is facing more than an energy problem. Crowded AI and semiconductor trades continue to unwind. Now attention shifts to two major catalysts: the midterm results and Friday's payroll report. A stronger wage print could reinforce expectations of further tightening, while weak mega-cap earnings could turn the AI rotation into a broader market correction. For a more sustainable risk-on recovery, we want to see three things: reduced geopolitical uncertainty, moderate wage growth, and a pause in the selling of AI and semiconductor stocks. #Macro #StockMarket #Fed