"Assessing the probability of BTC returning below 65K from PSIP's perspective" In the quote below, I briefly review the market over the past two months, and explain the logic behind my gradual confirmation of the "early bull market" from a data perspective. In June of this year, the cyclical bottom signal of PSIP < 50% fired the first shot in the bull-bear market transition. In this article, I will again share some personal biases regarding the bear market bottom from the perspective of PSIP: // The indicator in the attached chart is the "PSIP < 50% Buy Signal", with the core concepts as follows: ➡️ Full name: Percent Supply in Profit ➡️ Meaning: The percentage of profitable tokens in the circulating supply of BTC ➡️ If PSIP reaches an extremely low level, it indicates that a large number of tokens in the market are already in a state of unrealized loss. ➡️ Continuing from the above, "large-scale losses" in the market almost certainly signify a true bottom. "The First Ray of Dawn": PSIP Bear Market Bottom Signal Appears (June 8th of this year) (Published daily) https://((((((((x.com))))))))/market_beggar/status/2063800180227588374 // As shown in the attached chart, in the history of BTC: ➡️ Every signal trigger occurred at the bottom of a bear market. ➡️ Every time, a surge occurred, causing BTC to leave the signal trigger zone. ➡️ After BTC leaves the signal trigger zone, it almost never falls back to the trigger zone. ➡️ Continuing from the above, the only exception was the crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Based on the latest data, approximately 50% of the circulating BTC has a cost basis above 64K. In other words: "64K is currently the basis that keeps PSIP < 50%." The threshold for re-triggering the signal Furthermore, as more low-cost chips move upmarket, this threshold increases, making it easier to trigger the signal, even though the rate of increase is usually very slow. "The Cambrian Phase of the Market": The Second Cyclical Bottom Signal Appears https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2071773101898223809 Combining the current BTC chart pattern and the situation of STH-RP (https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2114534696554283091), as long as STH-RP, this bull-bear lifeline, can provide support, I believe that BTC returning to 64K (triggering the PSIP < 50% signal again) is a low-probability event. Moreover, even during the 2020 global market crash, it took about a year for BTC to leave the "PSIP < 50% signal zone"; and currently, BTC has only been out of the signal zone for about three months. Therefore, if my judgment on the bull market trend is correct, then now is definitely the very early stage of a bull market "Written at the Beginning of the Bull Market" https://((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2091702058009420064 The initial period of the bull market is a test to filter out players who are "qualified to enjoy the main upward wave." If you are still waiting for prices below 65K... BTC may need some serious consideration regarding whether it has taken on too much upside risk. "Scientific Right-Side Trading": Don't be unwilling to accept losses, but don't fight against them. https://((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2093152234163015863 That's all for today. Hope it helps! // Related Reading Resources "2023" "A Catalyst for a Double-Kill Script?" Maintain the original trading plan. https://((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2115993542132928548 "Retail Investors are Anxious, Big Investors are Buying Up, What About You?" https://((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2115622440944771273 "Analyzing Oscillation Structures with Liq Gravity": A Tried and Tried Market Manipulation Technique https://((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2114895760810787183