中国The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued three consecutive policy measures, further strengthening the policy bottom for A-shares! But has the A-share market truly bottomed out? Between the policy bottom and the market bottom lies a triple barrier: US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar! On November 2nd, three departments acted simultaneously: First, the swap facility was expanded. On November 3rd, the third SFISF operation was conducted, with 31 institutions applying for over 100 billion yuan. The previous two operations combined only amounted to 105 billion yuan; this single application exceeded the total of the previous two. Second, repurchase and refinancing relending has transformed from a "temporary tool" into a "long-term system." The interest rate has been reduced from 1.25% to 1%. The signed amount is approximately 440 billion yuan, with over 280 billion yuan disbursed cumulatively. Third, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released data. In the past two years, social security funds, pension funds, annuities, and insurance funds have collectively purchased over 1.5 trillion yuan worth of A-shares. Since October, institutional investors have generally increased their positions against the trend. Three things combined send a very clear signal: The national team isn't just here to prop up the market and then leave. It's changing the rules, making "market rescue" a "normal practice." However, there's a crack that policy can't fill, and it's a major hidden danger. Last week, margin trading saw net outflows of 87.3 billion yuan, a new low since September 2024. Leveraged funds are withdrawing. ETFs are taking over, and northbound funds are buying, but they're taking over "allocation-based" positions, not "sentiment-driven" ones. Policy can support the index, but it can't support the valuation of the ChiNext market. Because the anchor for the ChiNext market isn't in the hands of the central bank, but in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. When US AI tech stocks collapse, A-share semiconductors and the ChiNext market follow suit—a transmission chain repeatedly verified over the past two years. Therefore, the conclusion is clear: The policy bottom is firmly established, and the A-share market and index won't fall too deeply. But the market bottom depends on two things: the cessation of leveraged fund outflows and the stabilization of US tech stocks. Neither of these two signals is currently present. The central bank fired three shots, aimed at preventing a collapse, not a surge. Don't mistake the policy bottom for the starting gun of a bull market. Therefore, the fact that the A-share index hasn't fallen deeply doesn't mean tech stocks won't fall. The fact that Zhongji Xuchuang fell instead of rising is a representative signal!