小龙先生
小龙先生|Nov 02, 2026 18:25
The demand for AI is real, completely different from the dot-com bubble of 2000, so the AI bubble won't burst? This is absolutely the most dangerous statement you've heard this year. It uses "half a truth" to cover up "a fatal lie." The truth is: the demand for internet services in 2000 was also real, even more real than the current demand for AI. Back then, fiber optic cables covered the entire US, and the internet truly transformed humanity. So what? The Nasdaq still plummeted by 78%, and it took 15 years for those who bought at the peak to break even (see Figure 1). Countless companies went bankrupt, and even Amazon's stock price fell to a few cents. Why? Because "industrial revolution" and "capital market bubble" are two different things. Real demand doesn't mean reasonable valuation. Real demand doesn't mean you can not make money. These current AI giants are replaying the script of 2000, even more recklessly. Cisco sold routers back then; now Nvidia sells GPUs. Demand is booming, right? But now, Microsoft and Meta are spending hundreds of billions in capital expenditures on AI. Meta's free cash flow has been driven into negative territory. Even more dangerous is where the money comes from. It's not from selling products; it's from borrowing through debt. You can check CoreWeave's (AI computing giant) balance sheet (see Figure 2 below); debt is 10 times its equity. Once US Treasury yields remain high at 5%, and financing costs come down, their cash flow simply won't be enough to cover interest payments. Therefore, the AI bubble bursting doesn't require "demand disappearance." Only one thing needs to happen: the bond market will be unable to lend money. In 2000, everyone comforted themselves with "this time is different." In 2026, everyone continues to comfort themselves with "the demand is real." The industry is real, the demand is real. But your account being wiped out is also real.
+6
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads