币圈荒木|Araki🪵|Nov 02, 2026 12:23
Before the US stock market even opened tonight, I had already opened my trading software. The Nasdaq futures rebounded by nearly 1%. I watched for a while, then quietly switched back to my portfolio page. To be honest, the market recovery is a matter for the overall market; whether it will benefit my few stocks is another matter entirely.
The most interesting news these past few hours is that @SpaceX is in talks to acquire Boost Mobile or obtain its network usage rights. Simply put, they want to connect satellites in space with ground-based communication networks, taking another step into the mobile communications business.
My first reaction upon seeing this was, "Musk really doesn't intend to keep everyone's wallets idle." Buy a car, go to him; go to him for internet access; maybe even for mobile phone plans in the future. My stocks are tied up, but I still have to pay him my monthly phone bill—it's a deep connection. Joking aside, this is worth watching. Satellites connecting to mobile phones is one thing; whether they can achieve stable signal and reasonable plans that users are willing to pay long-term is another matter entirely. The news is still in the negotiation stage; whether it's an acquisition or a partnership, and how much it will cost, are all undecided. Don't get excited and start calculating profits for the next few years.
The AI sector is becoming increasingly complex lately. Previously, when looking at tech stocks, the main focus was on order growth, cloud business performance, and chip sales. Now, with the US midterm elections approaching, we also need to consider how congressional seats are allocated, as data center approvals, power supply arrangements, and potential increased scrutiny of AI companies could all affect construction progress. For those in the semiconductor industry, the most pressing concerns are quite simple: whether customers will buy the equipment on time and whether payments will be made on schedule. Large orders on announcements look very attractive, but only when it comes to cash flow do we know if we've actually secured them.
To make matters worse, an ECB official said today that further interest rate hikes are needed. This isn't a Fed statement, but it still sounds a bit unsettling. AI is currently a time of significant spending: building data centers, buying equipment, connecting to power—everything requires investment. Higher borrowing costs mean that every additional expense a company incurs will prompt the market to ask when the money will be recouped.
So simply claiming strong demand isn't as effective as it used to be. When financial reports come out, the first thing everyone flips to is probably the cash flow pages.
On the other hand, Estée Lauder raising its full-year sales and profit forecasts is quite interesting! We're constantly researching computing power, models, and the future of humanity, while their skincare and perfume products still find buyers. Of course, one company's good performance doesn't necessarily indicate a full-blown consumer recovery, but it at least reminds me not to focus solely on AI and end up thinking it's the only business left in the market.
Tonight, I'll first observe the market's performance after the opening bell, especially whether semiconductors can hold their ground. A slightly positive pre-market close definitely improves my mood.
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