小龙先生|Nov 02, 2026 12:11
☀️《Three-Dimensional Integrated Trading System | BTC Market Update》
—Short sellers are struggling; 79K is the ceiling, 76K is the defense line, and the medium-term trend is a bottoming out!
Bull/Short Volume: Bullish volume is very weak!
Current price around 77,850. BTC rebounded from 76,300, and the four-hour chart shows decreasing bearish volume, indicating no further downward pressure.
However, bullish volume is also weak. 79K-80K is a shorting zone after a rebound, and the price stalled at 78,500. This shows very weak bullish volume, and a further decline to test the bottom is highly probable.
On-Chain Data: ETFs saw significant outflows on Friday, indicating divergence among whales.
On October 30th, ETFs experienced a net outflow of $643 million, the largest single-day outflow since June, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing an outflow of $234 million.
Following the Binance incident, institutional funds have not yet substantially returned, and the Coinbase premium remains negative.
Whales are not monolithic: Large holders' combined holdings increased to approximately 3.03 million BTC, the fastest monthly increase since February;
However, Hyperliquid's whale BTC position turned net short for the first time since March. One side is buying, the other is selling.
Structural pattern: 76,000 is the support level, 79K is the resistance level for a rebound.
BTC is fluctuating between 76K and 79K. 76K is the recent low and also a dense area of liquidation. 79K is the first resistance level for a rebound; only a break above this level could lead to 80,300-80,900. This probability has now become slim.
International situation: The midterm elections and non-farm payrolls are the two major variables this week. The FBI has determined that the Binance incident was caused by a North Korean hacking group, and Trump has stated that he will negotiate if confirmed.
Geopolitical risks have not disappeared; oil prices have cooled in the short term, but the possibility of action after the election remains.
Key Analysis:
Short selling pressure is decreasing, and buying support is present, but the rebound is weak. Today's highest rebound reached around 78,500 before falling back.
The US midterm elections and non-farm payroll data will significantly impact Bitcoin's short-to-medium-term price movement.
However, disregarding market noise and news,
bullish and bearish volume, on-chain funds, and the volume-price relationship have already provided the answer:
The medium-term trend for Bitcoin is: a decline to test the bottom, followed by a bull market pullback.
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