11.2 Let's get down to business: Why is it the mid-stage of a bear market, not the early stage of a bull market? Fundamentals are one aspect, but technically, here are a few points: 1. Trading Volume: A bear market bottom must be accompanied by huge trading volume. There was a massive turnover at the end of 2022, but since June, trading volume has been sluggish and even gradually shrinking, indicating this is not an absolute bottom. 2. Accumulation Range: Accumulation by major players is always a narrow consolidation range. For example, in 2022, the accumulation range accounted for less than 20% of the entire decline, resulting in small candlestick patterns. In contrast, the consolidation range in 2026 accounted for 38% of the entire decline, with large candlestick amplitudes, which is completely unfavorable for accumulation. 3. False Breakout: After breaking through the 25,000 accumulation range in 2022, the price wouldn't fall back down once it moved away from the major players' cost basis. However, the breakout above 83,000 in 2026 was clearly a false breakout; instead, the monthly candlestick engulfed the previous low and the price fell back down.