BTC November Market Analysis I. Monthly Chart 1. Candlestick Chart 1) October's monthly range was -7.24%. The high of 87250 failed to break the September high of 87385, and the low of 76270 failed to break the September low of 749, forming an inside bar candlestick within the September candlestick. 2) From a price perspective, the bulls' second attempt to break through the September high in October fell by a hair's breadth (a false breakout or exhaustion test), followed by a drop of over $10,000, indicating that the willingness to chase higher prices had waned, and profit-taking had begun. 3) Structurally, the monthly chart shows a wide range of fluctuations between 60 and 98. After a range-bound movement (range 1), September broke upwards through the lower high (LH) of 828, forming a new high (HH) after the initial breakout. October saw the start of a pullback. Currently, the October closing price is lower than the September opening price and is an inside bar candlestick. Given the attraction from the September low and the large FXG below, I believe November will definitely see a test of 749. Watch for a downward test to regain liquidity before an upward breakout to test 98. 2. Liquidity 1) BSL: 87,385, SSL: 74,909 Explanation: The highs and lows of September and October have clearly established liquidity boundaries on the chart. The 87250 and 87385 levels above have accumulated short-selling stop-loss orders, while the 76270 and 74909 levels below have accumulated long-side defensive stop-loss orders. 2) Monthly FXG: 67-749, with a focus on the 70-71 FXG EQ area. Watch for an upward move after liquidity is gained here. 3) Annual vwap 731, this is also a key area to watch. 3. Relevant Data 1) ETFs: BTC saw a net outflow of approximately $516 million, with only IBIT experiencing a net inflow (approximately $932 million). ETH saw a net outflow of approximately $1.607 billion. Both saw net inflows in September. 2) Liquidations: Approximately $11.39 billion, of which approximately $8.17 billion were long positions. The two largest liquidations were: October 8th (approximately $1.03 billion) and October 29th (approximately $926 million). 3) Stablecoins: Total market capitalization decreased from approximately $305.8 billion to approximately $298.4 billion, a reduction of approximately $7.46 billion. This is a decrease in circulating supply, not burning. USDC on Ethereum saw a net decrease of approximately $1.7 billion. 4) On-Chain BTC Binance Cold Wallet 3M219K (responsible for periodic transfers between hot wallets and institutional custody): Decreased by 20,045 BTC in October. Interpretation: The decrease in exchange spot reserves indicates a reduction in potential direct dumping of tokens. Network Hashrate: Currently approximately 1,088 EH/s, with a net increase of approximately 160 EH/s in a single month, representing a monthly increase of +17.24%, breaking the historic milestone of 1 ZH/s (1,000 EH/s). Interpretation: The paradox of strong fundamentals and short-term selling pressure from miners. Long-Term Holders' SOPR: From 0.91 to 1.17. Interpretation: Some early, low-cost long-term holders have taken profits, but long-term major players are only temporarily reducing their positions to lock in profits, far from a complete sell-off to escape the top. MVRV: 1.72 to 1.59. Interpretation: An MVRV greater than 3.0-3.5 is a typical cyclical top (extremely bullish zone), while 1.0-1.2 is the support line dividing bull and bear markets. This month's move from 1.72 to 1.59 indicates a squeeze in valuation bubbles, returning to a healthy consolidation zone. 4. Macroeconomic Events Note: The US officially enters winter time on November 1st (this Sunday), with US stock market hours from 22:30 to 5:00. 1) November 3rd, Tuesday: US Midterm Elections (results will be released gradually during the day on November 4th, Beijing time). Polymarket: Democrats win both houses with 70.5%; Interpretation: A Democratic victory in both houses is largely priced in, but the outlook remains neutral to slightly bearish. An upset would be a major positive. 2) November 6th, Friday, 21:30: Non-farm payrolls (October). If higher than expected, the pricing of a December rate hike will increase, which is bearish. 3) November 10th, Tuesday, 21:30: CPI (October). If higher than expected, the pricing of a December rate hike will increase, which is bearish. 4) November 13th, Friday, 21:30: PPI (October) 5) November 25th, Wednesday, 21:30: PCE (October) + Q3 GDP secondary valuation. 5. Trading Strategy 1) The current strategy for November is: bearish on rebounds, look for liquidity below, and wait for a reconfirmation of the medium-term bullish trend. 2) By time phase: November 2nd–6th: First deal with the impact of the election and non-farm payrolls. Prioritize observing whether 79K-80K constitutes resistance for a rebound, and whether 76,270 is retested. Avoid excessive concentration of positions before the election results are announced and before the non-farm payrolls data is released. November 9-13: Focus on confirming that CPI and PPI may drive market repricing for the December FOMC meeting. If it breaks below 76270 and fails to rebound, pay close attention to the 74909 level. If the H4 chart holds above 80 and breaks above 828, reduce expectations of a further drop to 74909. November 16-20: Assess whether a true liquidity cleansing phase has begun. If it has already reached around 74,909 or even 73.1K, the key is to distinguish between a rapid sweep and a trend break. If it remains in the 79K-83K range, continue range trading and do not force a move towards 70K. November 23-30: Watch PCE and the monthly close. The November 25th core PCE and GDP revisions may influence expectations for the December 9th Fed decision. If the monthly chart recovers above 79-83, it indicates some easing of downward pressure in October. If the monthly chart closes below 74909, the timing and conditions for the 98 mid-term target should be reassessed. 3) Structurally: Given macroeconomic uncertainties, prioritize shorting opportunities on rallies. 74909 is my ideal trading decision point. 70-71 is a potential mid-term entry area, but cannot be definitively considered a bottom. Around 65 is expected to be a low point for an extreme pullback. 98 is the mid-term upside target, but not the November target high.