比特币橙子Trader
比特币橙子Trader|Nov 02, 2026 01:24
Democrats have a 71% chance of sweeping the US Congress! How much impact will this have on AI and Crypto? The Clariity Act may see an unexpected reversal! The US midterm elections begin tomorrow. Polymarket reports a 71% probability of Democrats winning both the House and Senate. If this happens, Trump will face a Democratic-controlled Congress for the next two years. The market is worried about tighter AI regulations and stalled crypto legislation, but my research suggests that things might not be so simple, especially with crypto. Regarding crypto, I think the Democrats may not want to drag the Clariity Act out indefinitely. The 2025 Clariity Act passed the House 294-134, with 78 Democratic votes in favor, indicating that there is already support for crypto regulatory legislation within the Democratic Party. The crypto industry has already invested approximately $176 million in the midterm elections this year, supporting both parties' candidates. With only two years until the 2028 presidential election, the Democrats have a political incentive to win over industry resources, crypto supporters, and swing voters, and there's no need to completely hand this card over to the Republicans. But the question remains: who will set the rules? CLARITY failed to pass the Senate in September, with one of the main points of contention for the Democrats being the Trump family's alleged crypto conflicts of interest. Even Elizabeth Warren, a long-time critic of the crypto industry, has expressed willingness to discuss a new crypto bill, provided it strengthens national security, economic protection, and anti-corruption provisions. However, Democratic Senator Alsobrooks, who participated in the negotiations, has made it clear that the Democrats will not prioritize advancing the original bill once they control Congress. Therefore, a turnaround is not impossible, but it's more likely to be a renegotiation and text revision rather than a direct passage of the version supported by Trump. Whether it can be pushed forward again in 2027 or will be delayed until 2028 is uncertain. Looking at AI, the impact may be even more direct. The Democrats are concerned about AI job displacement, data center power consumption, environmental costs, and the monopoly issues of tech giants. In September, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill concerning data center electricity costs by a vote of 417 to 3, requiring states to consider making large data centers bear the additional electricity costs. Even Republicans are concerned that the rampant expansion of AI giants will ultimately leave ordinary Americans to bear the electricity bills. If regulations and electricity costs continue to rise in the future, the return on investment in data centers by giants such as Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon could be affected. Of course, there is still room for bipartisan cooperation in the AI field to maintain America's computing power advantage, advanced chip competitiveness, and cybersecurity. In the cryptocurrency field, there is also consensus on stablecoin regulation, anti-money laundering, and consumer protection. The already passed GENIUS stablecoin bill will not automatically expire due to the election, and Trump still retains executive power and presidential veto power.
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