mignolet
mignolet|Nov 02, 2026 01:21
As usual, the Binance hacking incident has triggered a wave of FUD, speculation, and different opinions across the market. But withdrawals from Binance are still operating normally. Around 16,000 BTC left Binance in a single day, but that's only a small fraction of its total holdings. Looking more closely at the on-chain data: - Large transactions of over 1,000 BTC occurred frequently, but most were simply transfers between Binance's own wallets. - Excluding internal transfers, there were only two external withdrawal transactions exceeding 500 BTC. - "Institutional Custody providers" and "Market Makers" are also continuing their normal trading activities through Binance. At least from the on-chain data, I haven't seen any significant changes in their behavior following the hacking incident. If Bitcoin's price trend were always determined by major macro events or breaking news, there wouldn't be much reason to spend so much time analyzing on-chain and market data to build our own trading framework. We'd be better off simply trying to predict the outcomes of major events. But in reality, news is often interpreted based on what the price is already doing. When Bitcoin falls, everyone focuses on the negative news. When it rises, the same issues suddenly don't seem to matter much. Without a clear framework of your own, it's easy to get caught up in market sentiment, constantly change your mind, and end up regretting your decisions. What matters is having a clear framework and sticking to it. Once you've made a decision based on your analysis, you need to act consistently with that framework. Even if your decision turns out to be wrong, you can review what went wrong, learn from it, and make more consistent decisions in the future. That's why I don't put too much weight on individual news events. To me, what's far more important is understanding how the market reacts to these events and how major market players might use them. And I think those reactions should always be evaluated alongside the data-driven framework you've already established. My overall market outlook hasn't changed. After tomorrow's major event, there won't be many big events on the calendar for a while. That's why I think November could be a very interesting month to watch how the market develops.
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