小龙先生|Nov 02, 2026 00:54
Anthropic's IPO may be the death knell for the November price correction in US stocks and Bitcoin.
This isn't a prediction; it's a scenario that just happened.
A recap of the SPCX IPO: S-1 application filed on May 20th, listing on June 12th and draining $86.2 billion.
In the short 10 days between May 26th and June 5th, when funds were locked up,
Bitcoin plummeted from $78,080 to $59,131, a 24% drop.
Now, Anthropic plans to list on November 16th,
expecting to drain $60 billion to $100 billion from the market.
The timing of this capital drain coincides with a period of tight market liquidity.
Following this timeline, November 1st will be the most dangerous moment when liquidity is completely drained.
But even more devastating is that the current fundamentals are far worse than during the SPCX IPO.
Six negative factors are converging:
First, long-term US Treasury yields are stubbornly holding at 5.4%. First, discount rates won't come down, and overvalued assets will all be sold off.
Second, the dollar is falling, and so are US stocks. This indicates that funds aren't just rebalancing, but are completely exiting the market.
Third, oil prices have surged to $118. Inflation won't come down, and the probability of a December rate hike has soared to 85%.
Fourth, CoreWeave's CDS has surged to 1085 basis points, with a default probability exceeding 60%. Credit alarms have been sounded for AI infrastructure.
Fifth, Meta fell 7%, Google fell 10%, and Intel fell 22%. The earnings reports of tech giants have completely torn open the cracks in the AI faith.
Sixth, Binance was hacked for over $3 billion. Trust has collapsed, and panic is spreading faster than the facts.
Last year, SPCX's liquidity injection caused Bitcoin to plummet from its high.
This year, Anthropic's liquidity injection is happening after Bitcoin has already fallen below the $80,000 mark, and it may be hit again.
History doesn't simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
In November, keep a close eye on Anthropic's IPO progress.
That's the biggest drain on Bitcoin's liquidity.
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