The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|11月 02, 2026 00:23
The global copper market is extremely tight: China's copper import premium over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices has surpassed $200 per ton, the largest premium on record. The Yangshan premium, named after a Shanghai port that serves as a major hub for Chinese copper imports, has more than doubled over the last 3 months. Since the beginning of 2026, this figure has surged +700%. Furthermore, the premium of spot prices over three-month futures on the LME widened to $217 per ton, the largest since mid-August. This has been driven by strong Chinese copper demand and domestic inventories falling below typical seasonal levels. At the same time, expectations of potential US tariffs on refined copper have redirected hundreds of thousands of tons of copper to the US, leaving global inventories heavily concentrated in the country. The physical copper supply squeeze is far from over.
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