Why hasn't the price of BTC risen despite decreasing BTC holdings on exchanges? As the chart shows, the overall BTC balance on exchanges has declined over the past year, but the price hasn't risen in tandem. Especially from November of last year to January of this year, the exchange balance continued to decrease, yet the BTC price experienced a significant drop. The problem is that the exchange balance reflects where the coins are stored, not the actual number of sell orders in the market. BTC leaving exchanges may be going into cold wallets, or it may simply be an institution adjusting its custody methods; it doesn't necessarily mean long-term locking. More importantly, the price is determined by marginal buying and selling forces. Even if the amount of BTC on exchanges decreases, the price may still fall if there isn't enough capital willing to buy, or if sellers continuously lower their offers. Conversely, even if the exchange balance doesn't decrease significantly, the price may rise if buying pressure is strong enough. Therefore, the exchange balance is more suitable for observing changes in the custody distribution of BTC than for directly predicting price direction. A decrease in supply does not necessarily mean a reduction in immediate selling pressure; where coins flow out does not necessarily mean where funds flow.