风火山林|Nov 01, 2026 03:25
This is an essential daily task for professional traders; they check the market every day without fail, spending an hour or two on it. The recent news, like the Binance hack, is a black swan event, which would normally cause a 20-30% drop! But BTC only dropped to a low of 76,265, finding support at the 99-day moving average. The combination of panic, liquidation, and a security incident, without even a significant breach, indicates a completely different level of buying pressure below 76,000. Further declines, even towards 58,000, seem more like a tail end scenario in the current structure, not the main plot. The market has already self-corrected; what follows isn't a V-shaped reversal, but a slow, steady rise.
Today's market action also supports this. Currently around 77,700, it's been almost flat for the past 24 hours, showing resilience despite potential weakness. Open interest has increased slightly, but the price hasn't fallen; long and short positions are nearly evenly matched. Trading volume has increased, but total open interest has only decreased by 2.59%, indicating turnover, not a collapse. The long/short ratio dropped from 2.86 to 2.85, with short positions being passively liquidated, which ironically fueled a gentle upward trend.
In the short term, watch the lower bound of 76,265-76,300. Maintain the current recovery rhythm. The first upside target is 78,800; only a firm hold above this level will lead to further acceleration. The larger-scale logic remains unchanged: a bottom that a black swan event cannot breach is the true bottom. A slow bull market doesn't need daily rallies to prove itself; it simply needs to stop giving everyone the opportunity to wait for a double bottom.
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