Phyrex|Oct 31, 2026 18:30
Brent crude oil rose 13.6% in October, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain. On October 30th, the expiring December contract closed at $117.64 per barrel, while US WTI crude oil closed at $104.12, a 15.2% increase for October.
On October 30th, another oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that the conflict with Iran could escalate further after the US midterm elections, impacting oil transportation and supply.
Rising oil prices are a major reason for the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy. If oil prices remain high, energy prices, such as gasoline, may first push up overall inflation, and fuel and transportation costs may gradually be passed on to the prices of other goods and services.
While core PCE does not directly calculate energy prices, it may still be indirectly affected by this cost transmission. In simpler terms, rising oil prices primarily increase expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and unless the Hormuz issue is resolved, the Fed will find it difficult to return to a loose monetary policy, i.e., interest rate cuts.
The prevailing view is that Trump will launch a new round of attacks on Iran after the midterm elections, but the effectiveness is uncertain, especially given that Iran is a theocratic state; defeating it in one fell swoop would be difficult.
@Gate, trading more markets
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