wu fan
wu fan|Oct 31, 2026 09:32
My current cost basis for SOXL is around 90. Before Intel's earnings report on Thursday, I had a 15-20% unrealized profit; now I'm down 15-20%. My position is around 20% of my portfolio. SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF compared to SOXX, so it's more volatile. With Intel, a constituent stock with 8% weighting, plummeting 30%, theoretically SOXX should have fallen 2.4%, but it actually fell over 10%. SoxL should have fallen 7%, but it dropped from 109 to 70. Even if we assume it fell from 105 to 75, that's a 30% drop. That means 23% of the decline is due to Intel's poor earnings, which caused other semiconductor stocks to fall, dragging down half of SOXX. Semiconductor Index ETF So the question is, should companies that haven't released their earnings reports really fall like Intel, or even fall more? Therefore, at least 5-7% of the SOXX sell-off was driven by panic selling. Based on this, Soxl should rebound by 15-20%. A return to 90 or higher for Soxl is reasonable. Of course, this is just a theoretical calculation. In reality, market sentiment spreads very quickly. During a bull market, if one company reports good earnings, others follow suit. Now, if one company reports bad earnings, others fall – this is two sides of the same coin. My current decision to heavily invest in Soxl is based on the fact that Anthropic has already broken even on its cash flow. [The last sentence appears to be a fragment and doesn't translate directly.] When leading companies start to profit, it's like seeing Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu start making money in 2004. That's when it's time to truly build positions in Chinese concept stocks. Although they didn't make much money then, ten years later, by 2014, they had surpassed the old kings like banks and real estate to become the new kings. When the market crashes, some concept stocks, those with long-term unrealized performance and only focused on storytelling, deserve to fall. But the index will filter out the junk, leaving reliable stocks with good performance. Buying the index is less demanding than buying individual stocks. For example, buying QQQ is more stable than betting on a single stock. Of course, you can choose not to buy TQQQ and SOXL, but just buy QQ and SOXX.
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