How to recover the $3 billion stolen and frozen from Binance? How long will it take? How much will it cost? In conclusion: There is a chance of recovering a significant portion of the frozen $3 billion, but it could take weeks to years. Binance cannot expect the money to return quickly, so its latest announcement states that it needs to prepare a sufficient amount of $6.34 billion to handle user withdrawals (recovery within 28 hours), update reserve certificates, etc. 1/ What are the procedures for recovery? The recovery process involves four main steps: Freeze → Seizure → Ownership Determination → Return. These are different legal and technical actions involving various entities such as Binance, lawyers, police, prosecutors, courts, law enforcement agencies, issuers like Tether/Circle/WLFI, auditing firms, and on-chain asset analysis companies. For stablecoin issuers like Tether, Circle, and WLFI, technically it's possible to directly destroy frozen stablecoins and reissue an equivalent amount of tokens to the rights holders. However, this is only technically feasible; in practice, court approval may still be required. If US law enforcement is involved, a seizure warrant is also needed, requiring the issuer to transfer frozen assets to a US-controlled account before returning them through legal proceedings. For example, in August 2016, Bitfinex was hacked and 119,754 BTC were stolen. In 2022, the US Department of Justice seized 94,000 BTC. In 2024, those involved were sentenced, and in 2025, the US government filed a judicial application for asset return. The process from seizure to return is lengthy due to disputes over asset ownership. Binance's situation is much simpler, but the procedures are still numerous. Will the Arbitrum security committee, having directly taken control of ARB and ETH assets and transferred them to another wallet, simply return them to Binance in the next step? Not necessarily. 2/ How long will it take? In an optimistic scenario, it might take a few weeks to three months; in a baseline scenario, a large-scale return could take 6-18 months; in a complex scenario, it could take several years. CBS interviewed the Chief Intelligence Officer of blockchain research firm Recoveris on October 30th. He mentioned that his team once helped a Swiss client recover $10.5 million in stolen crypto assets, a process that took 14 months. Binance's current operation involves a larger amount of money, more cryptocurrencies, and more public chains, attracting greater global attention and requiring greater cooperation from relevant parties. 3/ How much will it cost? The costs include at least legal fees, on-chain investigation fees, and the time cost of funds. The first two costs are estimated at $10-15 million, which seems like a lot, but it's only 0.5% of $3 billion. The time cost of funds is also significant; if calculated at a 4% annualized return, the cost over one year would reach $120 million. These personnel and time costs are unavoidable. Appendix: Binance's announcement stated that $3 billion was frozen. Currently, third-party on-chain reports identify approximately $2.7-2.8 billion in frozen and controlled assets, involving $1.567 billion + $204 million USDT, $823 million USDC, $40.5 million RLUSD, $27.8 million USD1, $76.9 million WBETH, $50.6 million XAUt, $7.7 million PAXG, $3.5 million FDUSD, $6.2 million USDT0, and approximately $31.8 million ETH + ARB on the Arbitrum chain. The difference is $200-300 million; further details are lacking.